BOBGRAM7 issued 7 Nov 2010

WEATHERGRAM
YOTREPS
Issued 7 November 2010
Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.

Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from
the patterned world of weather maps, so please fine-tune to your place.
Dates are in UTC unless otherwise stated.

TROPICS
The South Pacific Convergence Zone SPCZ is reasonably active and rather
scattered across the Coral Sea, but has weakened east of the dateline
(after being active there last week). During the coming week it looks as
though the SPCZ may weaken in the Coral Sea. A new zone may intensify
in the region from Solomons/northern Vanuatu to Samoa, then move south
towards Fiji and Tonga between 15 and 18 Nov. Be Aware.

A LOW in the subtropics developed near Raoul Island yesterday (Sat 6
Nov) and is moving slowly south along 165W ---it will generate big 3
metre plus SE swells and throw these onto the area between Tonga and
NZ, mainly around Raoul Island, until 13 Nov. This Low will block a
high in the Tasman Sea....

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE: STR.
HIGH is moving to east of NZ along 45S, but is expected to leave behind
a cell that will stall in the Tasman Sea, west of North island. This
stalled high cell will slowly wander to the north and is expected to
finally move east along 35S next week 15 to 18 Nov. There will be a
squash zone of enhanced SE winds on the north side of this HIGH, mainly
between 20 and 25S, from around southern Tonga to west of New
Caledonia, from 8 to 13 Nov ... but the winds near Minerva are likely to
be more from the South until 12th Nov.

NZ AREA
When the stalled HIGH left behind in the Tasman Sea wanders north from
wed 10 Nov, a NW flow should become established over the South Island...
wet for Southern Alps and warm dry winds for eastern South Island. All
OK.

TASMAN SEA
Next major trough should wander from Aussie Bight onto Tasmania on Sat
13 Nov with a low that should swing by Southland by Sun 14 Nov.

SAILING TO NZ???
The squash zone between 20 and 25S, and the southerly wind and 3 metre
plus SE swell near Minerva and Kermadecs, are the challenges.
Winds near Northland are OK: expected to be SE 15 kt or less until wed
10 Nov then SW/W around 10 kt until Wed 17 Nov.

I will be UNAVAILABLE during 8-12 Nov. So, if you want an update for
your arrival, maybe it's a good idea to avoid arriving on those days.
You can get the regular HIGH SEAS forecasts via email to
query@saildocs.com, no subject needed, with message SEND
http://bit.ly/subtropic. Or, for latest BRETT coastal, SEND
http://m.metservice.com/marine/coastal/brett.

The terms used are more fully explained in the METSERVICE Yacht Pack.
More info at http://weathergram.blogspot.com
Feedback to bob.mcdavitt@metservice.com